England might win Euro 2020 according to Goldman Sachs’ probability model

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England national team might win the ongoing Euro 2020 according to
Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model gave the English side a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament.

England is in the semi-finals stage of the ongoing tournament. They are in a quest to win the European Championship for the first time in the history of the tournament.

Before the Three Lions of England could start dreaming of winning the European Championship title, they must beat Denmark in the semi-final which is England’s first semi-final in 25 years.

The history-making game is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday, July 7, 2021. Fortunately for the English team, they will play the semi-final at Wembley Stadium in London which means that they will have their home fans cheering them to victory.

Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model claimed that England have a 57.7% chance of reaching the final which means that the probability of beating Denmark on Wednesday is higher than losing the game.

Fortunately for Gareth Southgate and his boys, all the stats as far as Euro 2020 is concerned, favor the English team. Recall that since the tournament started for them on June 13, they are yet to concede a goal and they are yet to lose a game.

The worst result England have recorded so far in the tournament is a 0-0 draw with Scotland in the group stage. Hence, if the English team maintain such a form, Denmark would stand no chance against them.

Also, if Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model is anything to go by, Denmark are just going to be another prey to the English team. The modal gave them just a 42.3℅ chance to reach the final and a 21.1% chance to win it.

How does Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model conclude that England will win the tournament

England duo of Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount celebrates a goal in Euro 2020.
England duo of Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount celebrates a goal in Euro 2020.

After drawing on data from around 6,000 matches played since 1980, taking into account a range of factors, including squad strength, recent form, match location, and major tournament performances, Goldman Sachs’ probability model concluded that England will win Euro 2020.

The probability model which is being operated in Wall Street, New York, United States, predicts that England would beat Denmark 2-1 in the semi-finals of Euro 2020.

While in the other semi-final game of the tournament between Spain and Italy, Spain will beat Italy 2-1 in extra time according to the probability model.

Hence, the chance of making it to the final is 54.6% and their chance of winning the tournament is 24.6% while Italy’s chance of making it to the final is 45% and their chance of winning it is 22.4%.

This means that England that have a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament would play Spain at Wembley Stadium on July 11 and the host country would win their first European Championship.

This modal has no guarantee because it has failed earlier when it predicted that Denmark would win Euro 2020. However, the team which is rated number one in the world ended their journey in the quarter-finals stage of the tournament, thanks to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Italy.

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